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Oceanic Palliative Care Conference 2023
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Estimating the future need for palliative care in Australia: implications for the current workforce

Poster Presentation

Poster Presentation

ePoster

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Presentation Description

Institution: University of Adelaide - South Australia, Australia

Aim:
The aim of this study was to estimate current and future need for palliative care services in Australia and across geographical regions. Using secondary data, the study estimated the current population palliative care need (or prevalence rates) in Australia, including rural areas in 2020 and project estimates of need up to 2040.

Methods:
Using national mortality data and population projections, the study used three methods to estimate observed (2011-2020) and future (2021-2040) palliative care need in Australia by age, sex, disease group and remoteness.   

Results:
Across all methods was a growing need for palliative care in the observed and projected period. From 2011-2020, there has been a 6-10% increase in the number of people who need palliative care. From 2020-2040, there will be an increase of 60-74% in the number of people needing palliative care. People aged over 85 years, as well as people living with cancer and/or dementia drive the future need for palliative care. Palliative care need growth rates in regional areas are greater than the major cities.

Conclusion:
Given current workforce trends, Australia is unlikely to have the capacity to meet the rising need for palliative care. This suggests a need to rethink palliative care and the workforce that supports it. This includes models of care, the disciplines involved, how they are involved, and how they are trained and supported. Further research is required to test different approaches to ensure an adequate supply of palliative care resources match the demand forecast in this study.

Presenters

Authors

Authors

Mr Isaiah Luc - University of Adelaide , Prof Caroline Laurence - University of Adelaide , Associate Professor Ann Dadich - Western Sydney University , Isaiah Luc -

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